How a sense of betrayal of the american dream is driving anti-harris voting
(Originally published in the Western People on 2024-10-29)
Surf Photography of the 1960s and 1970s by LeRoy Grannis, a surfer since 1931, who began photographing the scene in California and Hawaii in the longboard era of the early 1960s
With America’s Rubicon election fast approaching on November 5th, Donald Trump’s supporters seem increasingly confident of victory (at least publicly), while left-leaning commentators are sounding the alarm about troubling poll shifts in the seven ‘swing states’ that will decide the election. All other states have sizeable majorities for one party or the other, so deep-rooted loyalties and a first-past-the-post electoral system mean little chance of surprise. But with razor-thin poll margins in these ‘swing states’, polling companies ‘interpreting their results’ and a recent influx of Republican-leaning (and often dubious) pollsters, the only thing certain is a tense election night and following few days ahead. This election will likely hinge not on anyone changing their mind last minute but on sheer voter turnout (and legal actions by Republicans to stop the counting of their opponent’s votes).
CNN recently reported that John Kelly, Trump’s former Chief of Staff, ‘entered the 2024 fray in stunning fashion’ when claiming in a series of interviews that his former boss was ‘the general definition of fascist’ and spoke approvingly of the loyalty of Hitler’s Nazi generals.[1]. On the other hand, Democrat-leaning pundits dismissed Trump’s latest stunt—posing as a McDonald’s worker—as another “career-ending” misstep. But the goldfish bowl of American politics never ceases to amaze. Trump’s countless so-called fatal errors haven’t stopped his rise, just as he predicted back in 2016: ‘I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK?’.[2] The January 6th insurrection proved the power of this unwavering support, resulting in the infamous fatal riot at the Capital building that left deaths, scores of injuries and chaos in its wake. So no ‘revelation’ about Trump will change anything at this late stage.
Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is running a disciplined campaign, packing out rallies, giving strong interviews, and even winning over arch-Conservatives like Liz Cheney. The American economy, at least on paper, is in roaring shape—stocks are up, inflation under control, and interest rates dropping. In contrast, Trump’s campaign is lazy, scandal-ridden, nasty and devoid of anything approaching a policy platform. He is telling jokes about golfer Arnold Palmer’s penis-size at rallies, while lying about illegal immigrants eating dogs, cats and geese in Ohio, Yet, somehow, they are neck-and-neck in the polls.
How? Has half of America lost the plot? Or is the country so deeply divided that elections are now tribal contests, where it’s all about sticking with your side—the blue donkey or the red elephant—come hell or high water?
According to Tom Nichols writing on the 23 October in The Atlantic, ‘many Americans know exactly who Trump is, and they like it’ and he sees that the former President will win the election, in spite of his depravity and existential threat to democracy. Nichols argues that a potent mix of social resentment, entitlement, and racial insecurity fuels much of Trump’s base, fostering their belief that they are being unfairly scorned by other Americans who seem to be enjoying an unearned advantage. This sense of grievance drives the desire to see these perceived enemies brought down to a shared level of hardship—levelling the playing field through punishment if necessary. In their eyes, Trump is the man for the job, embodying both their anger and their hope for retribution. But while many MAGA followers may fit this description, I believe there’s more to this than just resentment.[3]
When I informed an old Irish-American friend of mine that I had moved to L.A. he wrote me a simple email: ‘I moved to California in 1970 when I was 23. My last time living there was in 2015. Now, John Milton's Paradise Lost and the video below highlight what has been lost from the soul that was California’. The link was to a video accompanied by the 1962 hit ‘Surfin' Safari’ by The Beach Boys and features 1970’s footage of happy people at the beach, playing and surfing on sun-kissed waves — a wistful reminder of a different, simpler time. Though never vocalised, I believe he will vote for Trump, viewing Democrats as having destroyed our cities and communities.
Since moving to Los Angeles, I’ve noticed the same nostalgic undercurrent of loss. Whenever my Irish accent gives me away, I’m asked, “What brings you here?”—usually followed by admiration for Ireland. Conversations with locals often turn to how things have gotten worse: skyrocketing rents, high prices at the pump and supermarket, or the rise in homelessness and violent confrontations. A shop assistant told me how theft is so rampant that stores are chaining up products. Meanwhile, the L.A. film industry is in contraction, with productions fleeing to cheaper places like Ireland, the UK, and Eastern Europe and taking the Hollywood magic with them.
The American Dream—owning a home, building a business, or even just holding down a good job—feels out of reach for many. Exhausting commutes, juggling multiple jobs, and the looming threat of medical bankruptcy have left people drained, forced to be always pushing, always on edge. These pressures often boil over in arguments at shop counters or in venomous online rants. Some self-medicate with prescription drugs or otherwise. Some blame the Covid pandemic, others hint that the decline started long before, but most agree, America is not great for them.
I recently had brunch with an old friend, a retired Hollywood writer originally from the Bronx. After spending years in Europe, he had returned to L.A. for business but couldn’t wait to leave again. Over a long conversation, he shared his disillusionment with America, but I saw something in his eyes as I spoke about the upcoming election and the danger another Trump term could bring. ‘They are two sides of the same corrupt system’ my friend interjected, looking carefully at me. ‘Trump is a lout who accidently tells the truth’ but both he and Harris are as bad as each other.
He blamed both Democrats and Republicans for America’s decline, saying the country’s 75-year mission to dominate the world—whether through wars or covert operations—hasn’t changed no matter who’s in power — whether it be the invasion of Iraq or Afghanistan, stoking the Russian invasion of Ukraine or more recently the genocide in Gaza. He held special vitriol for Barrack Obama who ‘had promised us ‘yes we can’, and instead killed more people by drone and missiles attacks than George Bush did prior to him and who abandoned the middle-classes to financial uncertainty in favour of the establishment.
This reminded me of the pre-Trump liberal critique of the US government’s policies by such great journalists as the late Robert Fisk, but has since been eclipsed by ‘the Trump derangement complex’, which has infected the left as my writer friend saw it. ‘Trump has exposed them for what they are’ he assured me, but the system continued even when he was in power, ‘so another Trump term won’t change anything — good or bad’. He said he would rather vote for the Green party as at least they had principles, before the conversation steered away as to how much it unfortunately rains in Ireland.
It struck me then that this election may not just be about anger or resentment. It might be about a deeper sense of betrayal—of promises broken and dreams lost. Some voters trapped in a country they feel has abandoned them, won’t be able to leave like my writer friend. Instead, they’ll take it out at the ballot box or refuse to vote at all. What will that mean on November 5th? We’ll soon find out.
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/22/politics/trump-fascist-john-kelly/index.html
[2] https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/23/464129029/donald-trump-i-could-shoot-somebody-and-i-wouldnt-lose-any-voters
[3] https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2024/10/trumps-depravity-will-not-cost-him-this-election/680352/?gift=1ijvNhPRZqLiepmfij4SVeAepo1gyv4UTscznfw8Eqk&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share